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Birth rate in Kazakhstan in the late 20th — early 21st century
Krasnobayeva, Nelli L.,
Candidate of Historical Sciences, International Research Center “DIGITAL SOCIAL RESEARCH”, D. Serikbayev East Kazakhstan Technical University, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Republic of Kazakhstan, e-mail: krasn_nelli@mail.ru, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9081-0191
Aubakirova, Zhanna S.,
Candidate of Historical Sciences, international research center “DIGITAL SOCIAL RESEARCH”, D. Serikbayev East Kazakhstan Technical University, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Republic of Kazakhstan, e-mail: zhanna_aubakirova707@inbox.ru, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1179-5518
Sarsembayeva, Gul'zhan À.,
Candidate of Historical Sciences, Department of “History of Kazakhstan and Social and Humanitarian Disciplines”, S. Amanzholov East Kazakhstan university, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Republic of Kazakhstan, e-mail: gulzhan1974@mail.ru, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1371-1656
Stolyarova, Eleonora O.,
Candidate of Sociological Sciences, International Research Center “DIGITAL SOCIAL RESEARCH”, D. Serikbayev East Kazakhstan Technical University, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Republic of Kazakhstan, e-mail: eleonora193967@mail.ru, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-1589
Alekseenko, Aleksandr N.,
Doctor of Historical Sciences, International Research Center “DIGITAL SOCIAL RESEARCH”, D. Serikbayev East Kazakhstan Technical University, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Republic of Kazakhstan, e-mail: alalexeenko56@gmail.com, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1169-412X
Abstract
This article aims to examine fertility processes among the population of Kazakhstan during the post-Soviet period in the context of the evolving ethnic composition of the population. The analysis draws on a comprehensive dataset, including results of the All-Union population censuses of 1959, 1970, 1979, and 1989, data from the National Censuses of Kazakhstan conducted in 1999, 2009, and 2021, and current statistics. The research is grounded in modernization theory, applied within the context of ethnopolitical and socio-cultural transformations in post-Soviet Kazakhstan. The primary research methods employed are demographic and statistical analysis. The demographic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan during the late 20th and early 21st centuriy is analyzed within the context of changes in the ethnic structure of the population. It is concluded that former rural residents are gradually adapting to new social environments, which exerts an influence on fertility rates. Urbanization has led to a gradual transformation of traditional notions regarding family structure and the number of children. These findings highlight an emerging demographic trend that reflects the contemporary socioeconomic and socio-cultural state of Kazakhstani society. A significant decline in the proportion of European ethnic groups and the rapid urbanization in post-Soviet Kazakhstan have contributed to the spread of traditional reproductive attitudes, once confined to rural communities, into urban areas.
Keywords: Kazakhstan, Kazakhs, demography, total fertility rate, large families, age-related fertility rates.
© Krasnobayeva N.L., Aubakirova Zh.S., Sarsembayeva G.À., Stolyarova E.O., Alekseenko A.N., 2026
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Received 10.03.2025
Accepted 18.12.2025
Article is published: 15.03.2026
Funding. This research was funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant No. AÐ26198933) “East of Kazakhstan: trajectories of socio-demographic and socio-cultural transformation of the urban space of Semey and Ust-Kamenogorsk”.
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